Who's leading the AI race right now

Live standings from betting-market odds, public attention and open-model downloads. Tap a team to see its meters.

Points out of 100. Gap is behind the leader. Arrow shows the 7-day change in betting odds.

Betting odds, last 30 days

Chance each company holds the #1 model on the Arena leaderboard when the market closes, from Polymarket.

Superpower standings

The same meters added up by where each lab is based.

How the score works

Odds (50%): Polymarket's market on which company will have the top model on the Arena text leaderboard at month end. The favourite gets 100, everyone else is scaled to it.
Attention (30%): English Wikipedia views over the last 30 days for each lab and its main product (for example Anthropic + Claude). Square-root scaled so one giant doesn't flatten the field.
Open models (20%): Downloads over the last 30 days of each lab's 100 most popular models on Hugging Face. Labs that don't publish open models score zero here.

The formula is fixed and the same for every team; nobody picks the winner by hand. If a source is down, its weight is shared between the others. Not betting or investment advice.

Data: Polymarket, Wikimedia pageviews, Hugging Face. AI Race isn't affiliated with any of the companies shown.